Three-month air freight contracts captured 60% of new shipper agreements effective Q3 2026, up from 47% in Q2, according to Xeneta's Oct. 1 market report. The shift highlights how exposed air-cargo buyers remain to fuel-driven rate swings and ocean volatility.

What is driving the move away from annual deals?

The 12-month contract share fell from 40% to 25% year over year. Shippers want base rates that flex with market conditions, not fixed annual figures. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer, framed the environment bluntly: "There remains a lot of instability and that's making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals without having [terms and conditions] in place to deal with these volatile conditions."

Why are rates still climbing?

The average global air cargo spot rate hit $3.10 per kilogram in September, up 27% year over year. Rates rose just 2% month over month, in line with seasonal firming at the end of Q3. Brent crude pushed above $100 per barrel in early September as Middle East conflict sustained jet fuel costs.

How are the corridors diverging?

Trade-lane spreads have widened sharply since late February:

• Northeast Asia to North America spot rates climbed 34% from the week starting Feb. 23 to the week starting Sept. 21
• Southeast Asia to North America rose 29% over the same window
• Europe to North America dropped 20%, then narrowed as summer passenger belly capacity left the market

Northeast Asia to North America reached $6.03 per kilogram in September, up 5% month over month. Southeast Asia to North America held flat at $6.12 per kilogram. Europe to North America climbed 2% month over month to $2.30 per kilogram.

The split reflects a policy shift. The European Union's July customs duty on low-value imports rerouted e-commerce flow. U.S.-bound e-commerce exports rose 17% year over year in August. Low-value Chinese e-commerce into Europe fell 40% year over year the same month.

Is demand still growing?

Global air cargo volumes rose 6% year over year in September, building on gains from July and August. Xeneta tracks roughly 4% annual demand growth as the base case. The global dynamic load factor — volume and weight flown against available capacity — reached 62%, up two percentage points.

What is the ocean wildcard?

Van de Wouw flagged schedule reliability in container shipping as the swing factor for peak-season air demand. Ocean port congestion and unreliable routings push cargo to air when rates cross a threshold. "When ocean becomes this unreliable and this expensive, some volume moves to air," he said. "We are not yet seeing that in the September data, and it doesn't change our view of a muted peak season, but it is the factor we are watching most closely."

What does this mean for forwarders and shippers?

One-year fixed deals still exist, but many will not survive the next 12 months under current conditions, van de Wouw warned. "A one-year fixed rate deal doesn't fit the current conditions. Shippers are looking to build mechanisms which add flexibility to their commercial relationships with forwarders, and which will help to ensure they hold across the year."

Procurement teams now track corridor economics directly rather than default to a hedged annual position. The proposed easing of certain U.S.-China tariffs adds another pricing wrinkle. Channel power has tilted toward buyers, who can weigh Transpacific, Asia-Europe and intra-Europe rates separately each month.

Looking ahead, Xeneta expects about 4% YoY air cargo demand growth and a muted peak season, barring a sustained ocean reliability shock that pulls more volume into the bellies and freighters of the global air network.