Organic produce gains ground, but price still limits adoption

By Olivia Hart

What do the sales numbers show?

Organic produce unit sales rose about 1.8% over the past year while conventional produce declined approximately 0.2%, according to Circana, the Chicago-based market research firm. In the year-over-year comparison, organic volume totaled 4.25 billion, compared with 47.4 billion for conventional items.

The report, dated Nov. 5, 2026, does not specify the unit behind either volume total, and Circana’s unit-sales figures (items sold) describe volume rather than revenue. Organic produce therefore has positive momentum without approaching conventional produce’s scale.

Organic produce averaged about $2.86 per pound, versus $1.81 for conventional fruits and vegetables, according to Circana. That creates a roughly $1.05-per-pound premium, or about 58%, which changes the customer’s calculation on every basket containing organic items.

A higher shelf price does not, by itself, establish a stronger gross margin (sales revenue minus cost of goods sold); the report gives no product-cost data. It also provides no inventory turns (how often stock is sold and replaced), leaving open whether organic’s unit growth improves store economics or adds carrying costs.

The measured result is modest: organic’s unit sales grew, but its much smaller volume base prevents a conclusion that conventional shoppers have switched in large numbers.

Why do shoppers still hesitate?

Mike Mauti is managing partner of Execulytics Consulting, a Toronto-based fresh produce advisory and market research firm. He said: “Shoppers choose organic produce when the value proposition is right. It comes down to weighing the price premium and perceived benefits versus conventional produce.”

Analysts said expanding organic sales across a cross-section of shopper segments will require persuasion and patience. Interest also varies by retail channel.

In discount stores, shoppers prioritize price and give less weight to health or sustainability claims; the smaller organic assortments (ranges of products) in those stores reflect that preference. That supports a narrower organic offering and makes value the central discount-channel proposition.

Carey Allen, director of food claims for NSF, an Ann Arbor, Michigan-based provider of certification, testing, inspection and advisory services, called price a particularly strong purchase barrier during periods of economic uncertainty. She said hesitation also changes with shopper priorities, buying habits and familiarity with organic products.

• Younger customers often emphasize transparency and ethical sourcing. They may scrutinize marketing claims and expect details about certifications, sourcing and production practices, along with a clear connection between purchases and personal health.
• Families with children tend to prioritize health and wellness, but they want to understand what organic standards allow, including the use of certain substances.
• Older consumers show greater interest in product labeling and third-party certifications, which can make certification evidence more relevant than broad organic messaging.

Education about production standards, certification requirements and sustainability can encourage shoppers to look beyond cost, Allen said. Merchandisers then need to connect that knowledge to a reason to pay the premium. Those preferences are expert assessments; the source provides no segment-level counts of shoppers who buy or willingness-to-pay figure (the price a shopper considers acceptable).

In plain terms, shoppers need proof and a reason to pay, not simply another organic label.

What must stores do to win broader demand?

David Sherrod is president and chief executive officer of the Millen, Georgia-based Southeast Produce Council. He said: “The most successful merchandisers will make organic produce easy to discover, compelling to buy and worth coming back for. In a more fragmented retail landscape, the goal is to keep giving shoppers reasons to return to a store.”

That prescription for merchandising (display and promotion) addresses customer economics (the shopper’s cost-benefit calculation): shoppers need to see the item, understand why its benefits justify the premium and receive a reason to return. Merchandising can strengthen the value proposition, but it cannot erase the disclosed price gap unless retail costs or prices change.

The reporting does not identify producers, distributors or retailers and gives no supplier- or retailer-level volume beyond Circana’s aggregate figures. Without gross-margin or inventory-turn data for either channel, it cannot establish which participants capture the economics of organic’s 1.8% unit growth.

Conventional volume remains roughly 11 times organic volume, so conventional produce still holds the stronger volume position in the retail channel even as organic gains ground.

The next test is whether better displays, clearer certification information and stronger value propositions can sustain organic’s 1.8% unit growth while giving shoppers a clear reason to pay $1.05 more per pound.