Copper Up 35%, Steel 31% in Border States Supply Update

By Tom Whitfield

Border States' Nov. 9 Commodity Update put copper's past-year price increase at 35% and three-quarter-inch steel's at 31%. The electrical distributor attributed higher purchasing costs to data center demand, supply disruptions and higher manufacturing costs.

The update also recorded a 21% annual rise in four-inch PVC and a 9% increase in aluminum from October 2025 to October 2026. Steel suppliers began November with additional increases of 5% to 10%, while PVC manufacturers announced increases linked to higher resin costs and continued demand.

What does this change for distributors?

Distributors serving electrical contractors, industrial customers and large construction projects face higher costs for copper wire, steel conduit and PVC pipe. The update links the pressure to demand, supply disruptions and higher manufacturing costs, but publishes no project-level order volumes.

The report does not quantify distributor gross margins or inventory turns. Higher purchase prices can compress gross margin (revenue minus cost of goods sold) when customer prices lag. Longer lead times (supplier delivery times) can tie up cash and reduce inventory turns (the rate at which stock sells and replenishes). Both effects remain unquantified.

The supplier increases support an inference of stronger vendor pricing power. Contractors and industrial customers face higher material bills unless selling prices adjust; the report does not establish resulting margin erosion.

Copper: a higher baseline after September's peak

Copper eased in October after reaching record highs in September, when suppliers implemented two price increases on copper wire. The average October price on the LME (London Metal Exchange) reached approximately $6.59 per pound, 36% above a year earlier. The first 10 months of 2026 averaged $6.15 per pound, against $4.51 in the same 2025 period.

The update did not reconcile its 35% headline increase with the 36% LME comparison. Border States said: “Demand from large data center projects remains a significant factor affecting commodity prices and product availability.” The distributor also cited mine disruptions and regional supply differences as price supports, and suppliers implemented another copper increase in October.

Reduced production at a major Chilean copper mine after severe winter weather formed part of that explanation. The report named no mine or quantified the lost output, leaving its supply effect asserted rather than measured.

Steel: increases meet constrained output

Steel suppliers began November with additional price increases of 5% to 10%. Prices for three-quarter-inch steel rose 31% from October 2025 to October 2026.

Border States said data center projects strained manufacturing capacity, contributing to order backlogs and longer lead times, particularly for larger-diameter conduit (electrical tubing). The report also cited “lower import levels and steady domestic demand” as supports for U.S. steel prices.

Trade negotiations between the United States and Mexico remained unresolved over potential reductions to steel and aluminum tariffs, which stood at 50%. The report offered no settlement date or agreed reduction, leaving tariff relief unresolved for buyers.

PVC: size drives the delivery gap

Prices for four-inch PVC (polyvinyl chloride) rose 21% over the past year, and suppliers announced further increases in early November. Border States attributed the increases to higher resin costs and continued demand from large data center projects.

Lead times for pipe measuring two inches or less ran two to four weeks. Products measuring three inches or larger faced eight to 12 weeks.

For distributors and contractors buying larger-diameter conduit for electrical and infrastructure projects, those schedules complicate stock planning and project pricing. The report did not quantify how much of the delay came from data center orders or attach a cost to delayed delivery.

Aluminum: prospective relief, current disruption

Aluminum prices rose 9% from October 2025 to October 2026. Border States said production disruptions in the Middle East continued to affect global supplies, although increased Chinese output offset some shortages.

Chinese aluminum exports rose 16% during the first eight months of 2026, according to the report. Indonesia is expanding production capacity, with output projected to increase from 619,000 tons in 2025 to 4 million tons by 2030.

Analysts cited by Border States expect global aluminum supplies could move into surplus in 2027 as Middle East production recovers and additional Indonesian capacity becomes available. That is a prospective estimate, and the report supplied no committed volume or capacity timetable.

What to watch next

Border States' closing assessment matched its data: copper remained elevated despite easing from September highs, steel suppliers were raising prices again, and larger PVC products faced extended lead times. The report said those conditions could increase inventory costs and complicate purchasing and customer pricing decisions.

The evidence separates into two categories. Reported commodity prices, announced supplier increases and delivery windows are measurements; the persistence of data center demand, the contribution of supply disruptions and the 2027 aluminum surplus remain attributed forecasts.

Watch the November steel increases, the October copper increase and PVC delivery schedules for evidence that supply pressure is reaching customer prices. If project demand stays firm, distributors face higher-priced stock and greater working-capital exposure, while suppliers could retain pricing leverage over product availability.